The more than three feet of snow we got out of the last three storms is finally almost all gone, but the last little bit is holding on for dear life. One more sunny day and Arnold Field might be good to go... but that doesn't help our women's lacrosse team, which finally got outside to practice this morning, albeit on the tennis courts, which are snow-free.

THURSDAY UPDATE: What a difference a day makes! By midday Thursday, all but a few tiny patches of snow were off the field, and the LVC grounds crew was busy putting lacrosse lines down on Arnold Field for the very first time. The field is drying out well and is in great shape, save for some "surprises" left on the north end by our Canadian geese friends that have been wintering in the pond. With the forecast calling for sun and upper 40's well into next week, both the men and women should get their chance to play their first true home games next week.

The big question in LVC land for the next 24 hours is, will the women's basketball team get an invite to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in their history? Chances right now look pretty good, especially after the bracketologists over at d3hoops.com posted their projections earlier this evening and included LVC among the 21 at-large "Pool C" teams in the field of 64.

In fact, the Dutchmen seem like a virtual lock according to d3hoops.com, who picked them fifth among the 21 at-larges. Also projected to come out of the region: Landmark runner-up Scranton and Centennial teams Muhlenberg and Gettysburg. Interestingly, Muhlenberg was ahead of LVC in the last NCAA regional rankings, but LVC has a better in-region W-L record.

So will they be right? d3hoops.com has a pretty good track record with this kind of thing, so we hope so. We'll find out for sure tomorrow at 12:30 p.m. during the live selection webcast at NCAA.com.

Had a chance to get a quick look at our brand new men's lacrosse uniforms this afternoon, fresh from Nike. We only have the away blues so far, but the home whites are on the way. The blues are beautiful, with a Dutchman sewn into the sleeve to boot. The women's unis, also from Nike, should be here very soon as well, and we'll post them when we see them!

Wow. Make-Up Thursday just about turned the Commonwealth Conference upside down on both the men's and women's sides with some big upsets. Let's take a look at where everyone stands with just one game left to go - but first, a reminder of what the tiebreakers are, and who is playing Saturday.

CC Tiebreaker Rules
1. Head‐to‐Head results between and among the tied teams in Conference games.
2. Tied teams' won‐loss records vs. Conference teams in Conference games starting with #1, #2, etc.
3. Point differential between and among the tied teams with a maximum of 15 points in each game.
4. Tied teams' point differential in conference contests starting with #1, #2, etc. ranked team with a maximum differential of 15 points in each game.

Saturday Games (Women's and Men's)
Lebanon Valley at Alvernia
Messiah at Albright
Widener at Lycoming
Arcadia at Elizabethtown

Women's Playoff Picture
The stunner of the night was Alvernia beating #16/17 Messiah, 63-60, in an inspired win in Reading. That has created a tight race for second place, with Messiah and Widener tied at 10-3 (Messiah swept the season series, so they own that tiebreaker), and Alvernia a game behind at 9-4. If Alvernia can beat LVC Saturday, Widener beats Lycoming, and Messiah was to lose at Albright, Messiah could theoretically drop to the #4 seed and Alvernia would be the #3. That's a lot to happen, but who knows. If Messiah and Widener both win, Messiah will be the #2, Widener #3, and Alvernia #4, regardless of what happens. Ditto if Messiah and Alvernia win and Widener loses - Widener owns the tiebreaker over Alvernia.

Men's Playoff Picture
Things got a lot clearer Thursday night as one team (Messiah) clinched a berth and another team (Elizabethtown) helped itself out tremendously. E-town's big win over Lycoming puts Albright in first at 10-3, Lyco in second at 9-4, and Messiah is third at 8-5. E-town has sole possession of fourth at 7-6, and Alvernia, Widener, and LVC are a game back at 6-7.

So the question is, can LVC still get in? And the answer is, yes, but really unlikely.

This would have to happen: E-town would have to lose to Arcadia (who is winless in conference), LVC would have to beat Alvernia, and Widener would have to lose to Lycoming. That would forge a tie at 7-6 between LVC and E-town for fourth place. The two split their season series, so you'd have to look at their records vs. the top teams in the conference, starting at #1 and working your way down.  That's where the problem starts - it depends on who is #1. If it's Albright, then E-town gets in based on their win over the Lions. But if Messiah beats Albright, and Lyco beat Widener (which we are assuming in this scenario), then you have a tie for first between Lyco and Albright. They split their series, so you'd have to go down the list for them, and since Lyco beat Messiah twice and Albright would have lost to them, Lyco would be #1. LVC would then get in, because they beat Lyco twice and E-town did not.

That is the ONLY scenario LVC has to get in, and it is admittedly a long-shot. You have E-town playing an Arcadia team it beat by 19 earlier this year and a Messiah team playing a really good Albright team who will be gunning for home-court advantage. So to summarize, if you're an LVC fan, you are rooting for:

- LVC to beat Alvernia
- Arcadia to beat Elizabethtown
- Messiah to beat Albright
- Lycoming to beat Widener

Some big games tonight on "Make-Up Night" in the Commonwealth Conference, and it should make the playoff picture a lot clearer by the end of the evening. All the games tonight are make-ups from postponed contests last week during the snowstorm.

Here's a quick look at who is playing, how you can keep track, and who to root for as an LVC fan:


Men's
Lebanon Valley (10-13, 6-6 CC) at Messiah (7-5, 7-5 CC) - 7 p.m.
Radio: WVMM
Live Stats: GoMessiah.com 
Who To Root For: LVC, obviously

A must-win game for LVC, and an all-but-clincher for Messiah. The Falcons are a game up on LVC and Elizabethtown for third place right now, but have LVC and Albright left after losing to Lycoming on Tuesday. An LVC win would tie them with Messiah (and potentially E-town) for third and put them in good position heading into Saturday. An LVC win, and an E-town loss to Lycoming tonight, sets up a win-and-in game for LVC on Saturday at Alvernia. Messiah won the first game with LVC this season, 65-63.

Lycoming (19-4, 9-3 CC) at Elizabethtown (14-8, 6-6 CC) - 8 p.m.
Radio: None
Live Stats: etownbluejays.com 
Who To Root For: Lycoming

A key match-up to watch tonight, where a Lycoming win helps LVC immensely. First, if LVC wins tonight, an E-town loss would put LVC into a tie for third with Messiah all alone, making Saturday's LVC game at Alvernia a win-and-in situation no matter what else happens. Second, if Lycoming can win out and end up overtaking Albright, it would give LVC a lot of potential tiebreakers over other teams it split with (i.e. E-town, Messiah, and potentially Alvernia and Widener) since the Dutchmen beat Lycoming twice.


Women's
#16/17 Messiah (20-3, 10-2 CC) at Alvernia (14-8, 8-4 CC) - 7 p.m.
Video: Alvernia
Live Stats: Alvernia
Who To Root For: Messiah

This game could determine who LVC plays in the first round of the playoffs next Wednesday. LVC has already clinched the #1 seed, and Alvernia currently sits in the #4 slot. An Alvernia win, combined with a win over LVC on Saturday, could vault the 'Vern up over Messiah and potentially drop the Falcons as low as the #4 seed, depending on what they do. Unlikely, but it's a crazy world. On the flip side, a Messiah win would lock Alvernia into the four seed and make Saturday's game against LVC meaningless for Alvernia. LVC will still want to win that game to help with any NCAA selection, but it would presumably be a bit easier.

As if taking a cue from their track & field colleagues, the men's lacrosse team got a little sick of being cooped up inside the Arnold Sports Center arena practicing ahead of their season opener in two weeks. So, since their practice field is still buried somewhere under all that snow, they did the next best thing and hit the plowed-out Heilman parking lot for some reps on Monday, just as another bit of snow was heading into the region. Assistant coach Dylan Sheridan was good enough to send along some pictures of a unique practice:

 

 

Here again with a look at the basketball playoff picture for the men and women in the Commonwealth Conference.

First, the easy one.

The women clinched the CC's #1 seed with a win last night over Elizabethtown, in front of an all-time record 1,545 pink-dressed fans. Plenty of coverage of the game on GoDutchmen.com and the Lebanon Daily News today, but in terms of playoffs, it means that the road to the title goes through Annville.

What we don't know yet is who LVC will play for the semifinal on Wednesday, Feb. 24. Chances are, it'll be Alvernia, but if the 'Vern can pull out wins over Messiah on Thursday and LVC on Saturday, they could theoretically end up as the #2 seed and Messiah could fall anywhere. But, as it stands right now, LVC is the #1, Messiah #2, Widener #3, Alvernia #4. It'll shake out more tomorrow.

And again, the men's side couldn't be more complex.

My colleague Cory Furman at Messiah called the men's Commonwealth Conference "a meat-grinder" and I think that's about right this year. Consider in last week's regional rankings, the CC had four ranked teams in the top 9 - Albright (1), Lycoming (3), Elizabethtown (6), and Alvernia (8). LVC has three wins against those four, including two over Lyco, plus a win over F&M (2), and they also lost to the #4 team, Cabrini. Just in our region, that's nine games against ranked teams, with a 10th on tap Saturday at Alvernia. And, the Dutchmen also played NYU, the #5 team in the East, and Randolph-Macon, the #7 team in the South. Rough.

So as a result, we now have five teams battling for two playoff spots. Albright and Lycoming are in, with the Lions (coming off a 111-110 2OT win over Alvernia last night) a game up on Lyco for first. As an LVC fan, you want Lyco to catch Albright - it will help LVC's tiebreakers immensely, should it come down to that. Unless LVC ends up tied with Messiah for fourth, then you want Albright to beat them on Saturday.

Got that straight? Good.

So among the battlers for third and fourth, you have Messiah all alone in third at 7-5, then a two-way tie for fourth between E-town and LVC at 6-6, and then Alvernia and Widener tied a half-game back at 6-7. E-town and LVC split their regular-season series, but E-town holds the tiebreak there because they beat first-place Albright once and LVC lost to them twice.

Riiiiight. Bottom line is this - LVC needs to win their last two games. They don't necessarily need help at this point, but it would be nice if, say, Lycoming beat E-town on Thursday night or Albright beat Messiah on Saturday. If you want more on the tiebreaks and such, check out the handy Playoff Matrix, done up by our buddy Jon King over at Alvernia.

We'll know more after tomorrow night's snow make-ups, but one thing is for sure - Saturday is going to be very interesting.
 

It's that time of year again when we take a look at playoff berths and seeding, and things couldn't be more different right now for the two LVC teams looking at the postseason, the men's and women's basketball teams.

The women, of course, are in the driver's seat in the Commonwealth Conference, needing to win one of their final two games (against Elizabethtown Tuesday at home or at Alvernia on Saturday) to clinch the regular-season title for the first time since 2001-02. It represents a dramatic shift in power in the conference, which has been dominated by Messiah for the better part of a decade. And LVC could have a chance to clinch that #1 seed on their biggest stage Tuesday night, in front of an anticipated huge crowd for the PinkZone game against E-town.

But other than that, the women's side is wholly undramatic, with the four playoff teams already decided. It'll be LVC, Messiah, Widener, and Alvernia, with only seeding left to be determined. If I had to guess, it will stay in that order, and LVC would host Alvernia in the semifinals on Feb. 24, with Messiah and Widener playing at whoever gets the higher seed there (Messiah with the inside track on the #2 seed at the moment).

Then there are the men.

It's been an up and down season for the LVC men, with moments of brilliance (the early season upset over F&M, the recent three-game win streak) contrasted by a brutal eight-game stretch in mid-season where nothing went right. Saturday's loss to Albright hurt a lot, but amazingly the sixth-place Dutchmen aren't out of it.

Only Albright has clinched a playoff berth so far, at 9-3, with Lycoming (8-3), Messiah (7-4), and E-town (6-5) behind. Alvernia (6-6) is a half-game out, and LVC (5-6) is behind them. Like the women, the men still have E-town and Alvernia, but there is also a key make-up game with Messiah sandwiched in on Thursday. If LVC can win out - going 8-6 in league games - they will have a really good chance to get in based on tiebreakers, since LVC would have a) split with any team it could tie with, b) has won over Lycoming twice, and c) would have been beaten twice by only Albright.

Complex, I know, but it's not out of the question. Remember, this is a team that has been in virtually every CC game so far, whose scoring +/- in CC games is exactly 0, and whose average margin of victories in those games is just 3.8 points, including three overtime games.

And it isn't unprecedented, either - remember 2007-08? LVC was all but out of it, but won their last three games (against E-town, Messiah, and Lyco), and got some crazy help to sneak in the back door on the final day of the season.

 ...but this doesn't seem like something normal people do on a Saturday morning.

 

 

Yes, those are members of the LVC track & field team running around what may or may not be the Arnold Field track, in at least a foot of snow. The team's meet at Ursinus was canceled on Saturday, so they did the next best thing. Personally, I would've preferred the nice warm warm indoor track a few hundred feet away.

Thanks to coach James O'Brien for the pics!

As promised, we have more photos of coach Jim Monos from on the ground at the Super Bowl, these coming courtesy Elizabeth White-Monos. Only about an hour and a half to gametime right now in Miami where it's currently a bone-chilling 63 degrees.